技术指标能够预测商品期货价格吗? 来自中国的证据

基于移动价格平均、动量和移动交易量平均三类技术指标,研究了其对中国大宗商品期货价格的预测效果,并以基于宏观变量的预测为基准比较分析了其预测能力.主要结论如下,第一,技术指标能够在样本内和样本外检验中有效预测我国大宗商品期货价格,其预测效果显著超过已有文献中广泛使用的宏观经济指标.第二,对于不同的模型设定和数据频率,技术指标预测效果表现稳健.第三,从资产配置角度出发,基于技术指标的预测具有显著经济意义,能够显著提高资产配置效率,获得超额收益.相关结果能够为大宗商品投资及风险管理提供经验和策略支持.     

Cross‐Sectional Psychological and Demographic Associations of Zika Knowledge and Conspiracy Beliefs Before and After Local Zika Transmission

Perceptions of infectious diseases are important predictors of whether people engage in disease‐specific preventive behaviors. Having accurate beliefs about a given infectious disease has been found to be a necessary condition for engaging in appropriate preventive behaviors during an infectious disease outbreak, while endorsing conspiracy beliefs can inhibit preventive behaviors. Despite their seemingly opposing natures, knowledge and conspiracy beliefs may share some of the same psychological motivations, including a relationship with perceived risk and self‐efficacy (i.e., control). The 2015–2016 Zika epidemic provided an opportunity to explore this. The current research provides some exploratory tests of this topic derived from two studies with similar measures, but different primary outcomes: one study that included knowledge of Zika as a key outcome and one that included conspiracy beliefs about Zika as a key outcome. Both studies involved cross‐sectional data collections that occurred during the same two periods of the Zika outbreak: one data collection prior to the first cases of local Zika transmission in the United States (March–May 2016) and one just after the first cases of local transmission (July–August). Using ordinal logistic and linear regression analyses of data from two time points in both studies, the authors show an increase in relationship strength between greater perceived risk and self‐efficacy with both increased knowledge and increased conspiracy beliefs after local Zika transmission in the United States. Although these results highlight that similar psychological motivations may lead to Zika knowledge and conspiracy beliefs, there was a divergence in demographic association.     

知识分布、衰减程度与产业集群创新模式的内在机制研究

以知识流动为研究视角，将集群创新过程中的知识溢出、吸收能力内生化，构建包含三种创新模式下的产业集群演化模型，重点分析集群知识分布和知识衰减程度与集群创新模式的内在机制及其对创新产出的影响，并进行仿真实验。研究表明：不同知识分布下，混合创新模式的创新产出表现最好，外部吸收创新模式与内部自主创新模式呈现出不同的创新产出演化路径；在外部吸收创新和混合创新模式下，均匀分布型产业集群的创新产出表现最好，集中分布型表现次之，异质分布型表现最差，而在内部自主创新模式下，集中分布型则表现最好；不同创新模式对知识衰减的敏感程度呈现阶段性差异特征。这些结论对产业集群创新和可持续发展具有很好的理论和实践指导意义。     

External knowledge search,absorptive capacity and radical innovation in high-technology firms

Open innovation and absorptive capacity are two concepts based on the idea that companies can leverage the knowledge generated externally to improve their innovation performance. The aim of this paper is to analyse the joint effect of open innovation and absorptive capacity on a firm's radical innovation. Open innovation is expressed in terms of external search breadth and depth strategies and absorptive capacity is described by distinguishing between potential and realized absorptive capacity. In order to test our hypotheses, we carried out empirical research in firms operating in high-technology industries. The results indicate that internal routines and processes for absorbing external knowledge help explain radical innovation as they show a significant effect of potential and realized absorptive capacity. Also, there is a moderating effect of absorptive capacity on open innovation. Specifically, potential absorptive capacity exerts a positive effect on the relationship between external search breadth and depth and radical innovation. Realized absorptive capacity moderates the influence of external search breadth. These findings confirm the complementary nature of absorptive capacity and open innovation search strategies on radical innovation.     

浅析语境的作用及影响语境的因素

语境对交际双方的语言运用起制约和解释两种作用。说话人要选择适合语境的语言表达形式 ;听话人则借助语境弥补对话中省略的推理过程 ,或在有歧义的情况下选择词义。背景知识的多寡和相关性的高低是影响语境的重要因素。语境伴随语篇和交际而产生 ,并随着交际的推进层层展开 ,因而语境是动态的。交际者可以借助已有语境理解语篇 ,也可以主动地利用各种手段创造有利于交际的语境。     

知识经济对会计理论的影响

论述了知识经济时代的到来对会计的影响,主要体现在对会计理论和会计实务的影响,列举了大量的事实资料进行分析论证,进而得出了知识经济又给未来的会计提出了新的课题和新的要求。     

从信息管理到知识管理

探讨从信息管理到知识管理的演进及其渊源承继关系 ,有助于理解知识管理的内涵。分析表明 ,整合组织内显性和隐性知识以利于创新和提高组织整体智能是知识管理的本质特征     

论保护知识产权对信息资源共享的影响

在知识经济环境下 ,信息资源共享是提高整个社会信息资源获知能力与利用率的关键。保护知识产权就是保护知识生产者生产知识的动力 ,就是保护资源共享的源泉。它可以极大地促进知识资源的生产和有序利用。同时 ,保护知识产权又将在一定程度上限制和约束资源共享。因此 ,保护知识产权 ,充分发挥资源共享的功能 ,需要加强知识产权保护的立法、执法及宣传 ,实现保护知识产权与资源共享的有机结合     

论工程训练与创新人才培养

工程训练是重要的实践性教学环节 ,必须把工作重点转移到培养学生创新能力上来 ,创造有利于培养创新人才的环境 ,传授给学生丰富的创新知识基础 ,改革教学内容、教学方法、教学手段和考核办法 ,以保证培养创新人才的需要 ,并注意培养学生各种创新素质 ,鼓励学生创新 ,促进其创新能力的发展     

图书馆实现知识管理的思考

介绍图书馆知识管理的内容,分析知识管理对图书馆管理核心、业务工作范围、信息技术要求的影响,提出了构建知识团队组织、运用支撑知识管理的信息技术、显性知识的数字化处理、注重智力知识资源开发是图书馆实现知识管理的有效途径。